Posts Tagged ‘true edge’
With a running count of +19, and 2 decks remaining, the true edge is 19/8, or almost a 2 1/2% raise from the starting advantage. If you have any trouble with fractions like these-for instance, if you do not know fairly quickly that 19/8 is about 2 1/2-then you should not use the Zen Count. I would suggest that you stick with the simple Red Seven, and play according to running count. In my opinion, the true edge method is the easiest way to adjust a running count to estimate your advantage precisely, but not all players are comfortable with the math.
In the first half of the shoe, you can just as accurately estimate the remaining decks to the nearest whole deck by always rounding up. For example, if your running count is +10, and 5 1/2 decks remain to be dealt, round up to 6 decks, and then make the fraction 11/24, which is easy and accurate enough for bet-sizing. It is clear that your advantage has risen slightly less than 1/2%. Technically, with 5 1/2 decks remaining, it would be more accurate to use the denominator 22, halfway between 5 and 6 decks remaining. The true edge is more precisely 11/22, or exactly a 1/2% raise. The real difference between 11/24 and 11/22, however, is so small that it is unlikely to have any effect on the bet size.
Deeper in the shoe, however, as the denominators get smaller, the effect of rounding the remaining decks up to the nearest full deck will have more of an effect. In the previous example, with a running count of +19 and 2 decks remaining, we came up with the fraction 19/8, or just under 2 1/2. If there was actually only one deck remaining (which we rounded up to 2), our actual fraction should have been 19/6, which is slightly better than 3%.
Again, this is more important when there are fewer than 4 decks remaining. By rounding up from 1 1/2 to 2 decks, you should tend to bet more conservatively, which is better than rounding down and overbetting. Some players may want to make a chart of denominators in half-deck increments, but I doubt that it’s necessary. If you know that your 4-deck denominator is 16, and your 3-deck denominator is 12, it would probably not take more than an instant for you to come up with a denominator of 14 if you estimated that 3 1/2 decks remain in the shoe.
In single-deck games (or in any multiple-deck game that’s played down into the last deck), the most accurate method of true edge adjustment is to break the deck into four distinct quarters. In the first quarter, your true edge is your running count divided by 4; in the second quarter, it’s divided by 3; in the third quarter, divided by 2. And in the bottom quarter, your true edge is simply your running count, as a running count of +6 with a quarter deck or less remaining to be dealt would indicate a 6% raise in your advantage.
I think it is very practical to know your advantage quickly while you play, and the Zen true edge method is simply a count-per-quarter-deck adjustment, which will always provide you with your true edge when you use the make-a-fraction technique. You might also note that the Zen true edge playing strategy chart is much simpler than the old count-per-deck chart. In fact, it is very similar to the Hi-Lo Lite chart.
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The most common method of determining true count is to divide the running count by the number of remaining decks (or half-decks). The chief difficulty of this method is that it often involves dividing by fractions. The true edge methods I propose solve this problem, and other methods may be used as well.
The "True Index" Method
For strategy variations, instead of adjusting your running count, you may find it easier to adjust your index number to the true index at which you would alter your basic strategy. This method works well for players who are not comfortable working with fractions.
With the Hi-Lo Lite you simply multiply the index number of the decision in question by the number of remaining half-decks, then compare this number to the running count. For instance, let's say you're trying to decide whether or not to take insurance in a 6-deck game with a running count of +9. Four decks have been played, so 2 remain. Since your Hi-Lo insurance index number is +2, you compute your true index by multiplying +2 by the 4 remaining half-decks, ending up with +8. And you would take insurance here because your running count of +9 is higher than the true index.
This method may be used for all strategy decisions, but to do it quickly, you must instantly know the number of half-decks remaining.
The "True Shoe" Method
To use this method of true count adjustment, you simply divide your running count (which is always a whole number) by the index number of the decision you are considering (also always a whole number), and the answer is the number of half-decks or fewer that must be remaining for you to make the play. For example, your Hi-Lo running count is +10 and you want to know whether you should stand on your hard total of 12 against the dealer's 2.
Your standing index number for this decision is +2. Simply divide the running count of+10 by 2, which of course equals 5, and if less than 5 half-decks (2 1/2 decks) remain, you would stand. In order to justify this strategy deviation, with this running count, your true shoe size must be 2 1/2 decks or fewer. Otherwise, follow basic strategy and hit.
The easiest way to use the true shoe method, with any counting system, would be to first convert all strategy indices to count per deck. This way your running count divided by your index always results in the true number of decks remaining, instead of half or quarter-decks, where the decision changes.
NOTE:
If your running count is negative and your index number is positive, or vice versa, don't bother to make any true count adjustment using any method. Follow basic strategy.
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