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The most common method of determining true count is to divide the running count by the number of remaining decks (or half-decks). The chief difficulty of this method is that it often involves dividing by fractions. The true edge methods I propose solve this problem, and other methods may be used as well.
The "True Index" Method
For strategy variations, instead of adjusting your running count, you may find it easier to adjust your index number to the true index at which you would alter your basic strategy. This method works well for players who are not comfortable working with fractions.
With the Hi-Lo Lite you simply multiply the index number of the decision in question by the number of remaining half-decks, then compare this number to the running count. For instance, let's say you're trying to decide whether or not to take insurance in a 6-deck game with a running count of +9. Four decks have been played, so 2 remain. Since your Hi-Lo insurance index number is +2, you compute your true index by multiplying +2 by the 4 remaining half-decks, ending up with +8. And you would take insurance here because your running count of +9 is higher than the true index.
This method may be used for all strategy decisions, but to do it quickly, you must instantly know the number of half-decks remaining.
The "True Shoe" Method
To use this method of true count adjustment, you simply divide your running count (which is always a whole number) by the index number of the decision you are considering (also always a whole number), and the answer is the number of half-decks or fewer that must be remaining for you to make the play. For example, your Hi-Lo running count is +10 and you want to know whether you should stand on your hard total of 12 against the dealer's 2.
Your standing index number for this decision is +2. Simply divide the running count of+10 by 2, which of course equals 5, and if less than 5 half-decks (2 1/2 decks) remain, you would stand. In order to justify this strategy deviation, with this running count, your true shoe size must be 2 1/2 decks or fewer. Otherwise, follow basic strategy and hit.
The easiest way to use the true shoe method, with any counting system, would be to first convert all strategy indices to count per deck. This way your running count divided by your index always results in the true number of decks remaining, instead of half or quarter-decks, where the decision changes.
NOTE:
If your running count is negative and your index number is positive, or vice versa, don't bother to make any true count adjustment using any method. Follow basic strategy.
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True count is an adjusted running count that indicates the ratio of high cards to low cards. True count is, in fact, not "true" as a precise indicator of your advantage, but it does reflect the balance of the cards so that you may approximate both your advantage and your playing strategy.
Most level-one systems, like the Hi-Lo, recommend that true count be estimated as count per deck. The true edge with the Hi-Lo Lite is simply the count per half-deck. Some authors who have developed higher level counting systems, most notably Ken Uston and Lawrence Revere, have advised count-per-half-deck adjustments.
Take a full 52-card deck. Count the point value of all the tens and aces using the Hi-Lo Lite. With 16 tens and 4 aces counted as -1 each, the points add up to -20. If you now count all of the points of the low cards, 2's, 3's, 4's, 5's, and 6's, at +1 each, you'll find that these add up to +20. The deck is perfectly balanced between plus-valued cards and minus-valued cards.
Now, let's remove 8 tens and 2 aces from the deck. Adding up the point values of the high cards remaining in the deck, we now get -10. Our balance looks like this:
= .50 = 50%
A
The deck is heavy in low cards and light in high cards. There are, in fact, exactly half as many high card points as low card points in the remaining deck.
If this situation occurred at a blackjack table, that is, if 8 tens and 2 aces had been played in the first round of hands, and no low cards came out of the deck, the running count would be -10.
But consider what the balance would look like if this situation occurred while playing a 6-deck shoe game. To start with, six full decks contain 96 tens and 24 aces, or 120 total high cards, and there are also 120 total low cards. The high card points balanced against the low card points look like this:
= 1.0= 100%
Now, if we remove 8 tens and 2 aces, our balance looks like this:
= .92 = 92%
The balance is only slightly tipped because there were so many more points to start with. Although the same cards as in our single-deck example have been removed, we still have nearly as many high card points as low card points in the shoe (92%, to be precise).
What this means to card counters is that although the running count may be -10 in both situations, the advantage, and playing strategy, would differ. The running count must be adjusted to reflect the true balance of high cards to low cards.
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