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True count is an adjusted running count that indicates the ratio of high cards to low cards. True count is, in fact, not "true" as a precise indicator of your advantage, but it does reflect the balance of the cards so that you may approximate both your advantage and your playing strategy.
Most level-one systems, like the Hi-Lo, recommend that true count be estimated as count per deck. The true edge with the Hi-Lo Lite is simply the count per half-deck. Some authors who have developed higher level counting systems, most notably Ken Uston and Lawrence Revere, have advised count-per-half-deck adjustments.
Take a full 52-card deck. Count the point value of all the tens and aces using the Hi-Lo Lite. With 16 tens and 4 aces counted as -1 each, the points add up to -20. If you now count all of the points of the low cards, 2's, 3's, 4's, 5's, and 6's, at +1 each, you'll find that these add up to +20. The deck is perfectly balanced between plus-valued cards and minus-valued cards.
Now, let's remove 8 tens and 2 aces from the deck. Adding up the point values of the high cards remaining in the deck, we now get -10. Our balance looks like this:
= .50 = 50%
A
The deck is heavy in low cards and light in high cards. There are, in fact, exactly half as many high card points as low card points in the remaining deck.
If this situation occurred at a blackjack table, that is, if 8 tens and 2 aces had been played in the first round of hands, and no low cards came out of the deck, the running count would be -10.
But consider what the balance would look like if this situation occurred while playing a 6-deck shoe game. To start with, six full decks contain 96 tens and 24 aces, or 120 total high cards, and there are also 120 total low cards. The high card points balanced against the low card points look like this:
= 1.0= 100%
Now, if we remove 8 tens and 2 aces, our balance looks like this:
= .92 = 92%
The balance is only slightly tipped because there were so many more points to start with. Although the same cards as in our single-deck example have been removed, we still have nearly as many high card points as low card points in the shoe (92%, to be precise).
What this means to card counters is that although the running count may be -10 in both situations, the advantage, and playing strategy, would differ. The running count must be adjusted to reflect the true balance of high cards to low cards.
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