True count is an adjusted running count that indicates the ratio of high cards to low cards. True count is, in fact, not "true" as a precise indicator of your advantage, but it does reflect the balance of the cards so that you may approximate both your advantage and your playing strategy.
Most level-one systems, like the Hi-Lo, recommend that true count be estimated as count per deck. The true edge with the Hi-Lo Lite is simply the count per half-deck. Some authors who have developed higher level counting systems, most notably Ken Uston and Lawrence Revere, have advised count-per-half-deck adjustments.
Take a full 52-card deck. Count the point value of all the tens and aces using the Hi-Lo Lite. With 16 tens and 4 aces counted as -1 each, the points add up to -20. If you now count all of the points of the low cards, 2's, 3's, 4's, 5's, and 6's, at +1 each, you'll find that these add up to +20. The deck is perfectly balanced between plus-valued cards and minus-valued cards.
Now, let's remove 8 tens and 2 aces from the deck. Adding up the point values of the high cards remaining in the deck, we now get -10. Our balance looks like this:
= .50 = 50%
A
The deck is heavy in low cards and light in high cards. There are, in fact, exactly half as many high card points as low card points in the remaining deck.
If this situation occurred at a blackjack table, that is, if 8 tens and 2 aces had been played in the first round of hands, and no low cards came out of the deck, the running count would be -10.
But consider what the balance would look like if this situation occurred while playing a 6-deck shoe game. To start with, six full decks contain 96 tens and 24 aces, or 120 total high cards, and there are also 120 total low cards. The high card points balanced against the low card points look like this:
= 1.0= 100%
Now, if we remove 8 tens and 2 aces, our balance looks like this:
= .92 = 92%
The balance is only slightly tipped because there were so many more points to start with. Although the same cards as in our single-deck example have been removed, we still have nearly as many high card points as low card points in the shoe (92%, to be precise).
What this means to card counters is that although the running count may be -10 in both situations, the advantage, and playing strategy, would differ. The running count must be adjusted to reflect the true balance of high cards to low cards.
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I ran 100 million hands, and tallied the results with both a flat bet and a 1 to 4 spread at 75% penetration. This time, in the "lite" version of the Hi-Lo, I widened the border again, converting all of Wong's indices to plus or minus 1, 5, or 10. The results:
Strategy Flat Bet Ito 4
Wong -0.06% + 1.32%
Hi-Lo Lite -0.05% + 1.33%
The fact that the Lite system outperformed Wong's by one-hundredth of one percent was, again, insignificant in a test of 100-million hands. What is important is that from the practical dollars-and-cents perspective, it doesn't matter which of these systems you use. The simulation results indicate that you may use a vastly simplified Hi-Lo strategy, and maintain full power, even in a one-deck game.
So, in 1991, I published a series of three articles in Casino Player magazine about this astonishing discovery. I developed the Hi-Lo Lite counting system to be a feature of the revised Blackbelt in Blackjack, but then, in October of 1991, the Oakland Firestorm destroyed the manuscript, so I published the Hi-Lo Lite without much fanfare in the December 1991 issue of Blackjack Forum. Since that time, I have been personally advising players to simplify their strategy charts with this modified approach.
John Imming later discovered the reason why the lite approach to indices works so well. In attempting to determine why his Universal Blackjack Engine software sometimes spat out different indices for the same counting system via simulations of hundreds of millions of hands, Imming discovered that the actual indices were not precise, but constantly wavered according to the level of penetration and other factors. Some indices went up and down by a few numbers until finally settling.
In 1997, Ken Fuchs, co-author of Knock-Out Blackjack, presented a paper at the 10th International Gambling Conference in which his simulation results of a slightly different lite counting system supported my findings. Then, George C. privately devised a lite version of the Zen Count, which John Auston tested against the regular Zen indices using the Statistical Blackjack Analyzer software. It took Auston a billion hands of each system to determine that the lite indices underperformed against the regular indices by about two-hundredths of one percent.
It was George C, incidentally, who discovered that all of the +1 and -1 lite indices could be adjusted to 0, with no notable loss of power. So, the version of Hi-Lo Lite published here has been further simplified. If you want to test the Hi-Lo Lite via computer simulations of your own, note that the true edge methodology is not the same as true-count-per-deck. If your blackjack simulation program does not allow you to enter indices as true-count-per-half-deck, then you must double the Hi-Lo Lite indices.
For the most important strategy decisions, all indices are either 0 or +4. To fully adjust the complete chart, make all +2s into +4s, -4s into -8s, and so on, in order to test the system with a count-per-deck simulator.
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